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The European stainless steel scrap market is facing a near-term demand crisis and high uncertainty going into the fourth quarter, according to Jurgen Pilarsky, chief executive at scrap processor and metals trading group Cronimet.

 

"The market is collapsing at the moment," Pilarsky said. "There is always a summer lull, but what we have recently is 2-3 months of no demand at all." Speaking to Argus on the sidelines of the International Stainless and Special Steel Conference in Hamburg, Germany last week, Pilarsky said the slowdown has been driven by steelmakers holding greater inventory of finished stainless steel as their order books have thinned from the prevailing macro environment of high inflation, with the consequent cuts to new production hitting scrap demand and making it difficult for scrap suppliers to forecast future demand accurately.

 

"If our customer needs material in November, we have to purchase and process scrap just now," he said. "But we have no clue if there is a need and almost need some guidance from our customers."

 

Since 5 May this year, the Argus assessment for stainless scrap 304 (18-8) stainless steel scrap solids cif Rotterdam has more than halved to €1,125-1,150/t on 29 September, with the corresponding assessment for molybdenum-bearing 316 cif Rotterdam falling by 42pc to an average of €1,900-1,950/t.

 

In an oversupplied European market, which has further been hit by increased imports of finished stainless steel from Asia, Pilarsky indicated that demand is likely to remain weak and visibility on market direction poor through to the end of 2022.

 

"There is no idea in the whole value chain about what will happen in the next 3-4 months," he said.

 

According to Pilarsky, steelmaker activity in Europe is mixed and is governed by energy prices, with mills located in regions that have lower relative costs at an advantage over others. But the overwhelming majority are waiting for the inflationary pressures on operations to ease, particularly through improved supply and government intervention, so underlying demand can return and production can be ramped up once again.

 

Governments of Nordic countries, including Finland which is home to major stainless steel producer Outokumpu, have recently urged the European Commission to take further steps to reduce power consumption and to mitigate increasing power prices driven by rising gas costs. And a consortium of 15 EU ministers, including from Spain and Italy, have recently resignalled the need for the commission to present a proposal for a wholesale gas price cap to ensure security of supply and the free flow of gas within Europe. But the market is still mostly waiting for a breakthrough that would boost near-term demand for stainless steel producers, and consequently for scrap suppliers.

 

Low demand in Europe has led to more stainless steel scrap flowing to major export markets such as India. And Pilarsky said lower container prices from Europe to Asia are also a major contributing factor to the rise in scrap exports to Asian destinations.

 

"In the past, we had low container availability and high costs," Pilarsky said. "But freight rates to Asia have been getting lower over the past few weeks."

 

The outlook for Asian demand remains robust, Pilarsky said, with the lower CO2 footprint of stainless steel scrap making it the first choice for producers seeking to meet sustainability standards. But he cautioned that overseas demand could fall if seaborne scrap prices rise too high, as that would prompt buyers to seek out alternative products.

 

"Scrap always finds a customer, there is always more demand than availability," he said. "Eventually the market levels up because the price increases to a point where it becomes cheaper to produce using nickel pig iron and ferronickel."

 

Some sections of the market have pointed to greater scrap utilisation by stainless steelmakers as an avenue for near-term demand. Scrap ratios adopted in stainless steel production are mixed, with some producers in Europe operating at very high levels of scrap utilisation — 90pc and above in some cases — with others using less. But according to Pilarsky, scrap demand is largely not related to ratios as there is only a 1-3pc room for stainless steel producers in Europe to increase utilisation.

 

"Demand is tied to increasing and decreasing production only," he said. "We have seen that in the past when scrap ratios have moved higher."