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【Ferro-alloys.com】Asia's gasoil exporters are taking advantage of arbitrage lanes to Europe whenever viable as Russian-export dependent buyers seek alternatives amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Spot deals for Asian gasoil loadings in tankers in March, with options for delivering gasoil to Europe, are projected to more than double in volume month on month to over 2 million mt on the back of uncertainty and legal complications of sourcing the commodity from Russia, market participants said.

Having the option to discharge cargoes in Europe allows companies to adapt to the volatile swings in the gasoil market that has caused East-West arbitrage viability to fluctuate sharply in recent weeks.

The front month Gasoil Exchange of Futures for Swaps, or EFS, has see-sawed between minus $52.04/mt and minus $174.38/mt so far during March, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.

The EFS measures the spread between Singapore 10 ppm sulfur gasoil swaps and the corresponding ICE low sulfur gasoil futures contract and is an indicator of arbitrage economics to send Asian gasoil to the West. A deeper negative spread indicates that gasoil can command a higher price in the West than in Asia and typically points to arbitrage lanes being open.

The front month EFS spread was last assessed at minus $98.63/mt at Singapore close March 28, with market participants viewing arbitrage economics to be viable.

While the EFS spread was deeply negative through the month, steep backwardation in the gasoil market structure, along with rising freight rates, kept the East-West arbitrage window closed over some periods of time, sources said.

"Arbitrage is wide open since the beginning of the year on paper, but the backwardation kills the arbitrage for long-haul," said a refining source based in South Asia.

Uncertain geopolitics ups Asia sales
Nevertheless, the strong pull for Asian gasoil barrels from the West has pried open the arbitrage window for a short duration of time, which traders are able to leverage by chartering vessels with multiple discharge options, including Europe.

"Every since the war broke out, there has been a flurry of gasoil shipments being covered with tankers," said a chartering executive with a global commodities trading company.

Most of the inquiries are to load ultra-low sulfur diesel, or ULSD, the executive said.

Due to sanctions on Russian banks, importers are wary of sourcing large volumes from the Baltic and the Black Sea region as payment hassles may be involved, another tanker executive said.

Furthermore, insurance clubs have issued an advisory to avoid ports in Russia and Ukraine, and therefore the next best option is to load cargoes from the Middle East, and South Korea, said a broker in Singapore.

Total gasoil loadings on tankers chartered from the spot market in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, West Coast India and East Asia with an option to deliver the cargoes to Europe was just under a million mt in February and is projected to more than double this month, according to estimates of brokers and shipping executives involved in such deals.

Not all volumes may eventually end up in Europe as other destination options are also taken when chartering a tanker. Furthermore, these estimates do not include other volumes which traders may deliver into Europe in tankers owned by them or under time charter.

The spot fixtures are a barometer of trading patterns in global oil trade and currently point towards a significant jump in gasoil movements from Asia to Europe, sources said.

This is also reflected in the freight rates.

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters the second month, Long Range II, or LR2, freight on the Persian Gulf-UKC route has jumped to around $3.5 million from $1.6 million, according to S&P Global data. The LR1 freight on the same route is up almost 80% during the same period at $2.85 million.

The strength was similarly seen in the Asian gasoil complex, where the FOB Singapore 10 ppm sulfur gasoil cash differential averaged at plus $5.28/b to Mean of Platts Singapore gasoil assessment so far this month till March 28, more than double from February when it averaged plus $2.02/b, S&P Global data showed.

• [Editor:zhaozihao]