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 The PBOC has announced that it has decided to cut the benchmark lending and deposit rates again (effective July 6). This is the second rate cut within one month, after the one announced on June 7. This policy move is more aggressive than our and market expectations and should support market sentiment in the short term, in our view.

The one-year benchmark lending rate is being cut by 31bps and the one-year benchmark deposit rate by 25bps. Rates for other maturities are also cut. The floating range for lending rates is widened further to 30% below benchmarks from the previous 20%.

We see several reasons for this earlier-than-expected rate cut. First, economic data (especially IP growth) for June and Q2 GDP growth, to be released on July 13, are likely to be weak. We expect IP growth to be only 9% yoy in June (vs. market consensus of 9.6%) and Q2 GDP growth at 7.5% (vs. market consensus of 8.0%). Second, new lending in June probably disappointed to the downside (market consensus is about RMB910bn), as effective demand for loans remained sluggish. A lending rate cut could help, at least marginally, support a recovery in loan demand. Third, CPI inflation probably declined to nearly 2% yoy in June (from 3% in May) and PPI showed serious deflation. Fourth, there could be global coordination among central banks (note that the ECB has also just announced a rate cut). Fifth, this time around the rate cut is less asymmetric as the central bank needs to care about the NIM of the banking system. Sixth, this rate cut demonstrates the government's determination to support an economic recovery in the second half of this year.

As for the impact on the economy, we believe that sectors such as power, property, transport and raw materials will benefit the most. These are highly leveraged sectors and will enjoy a significant reduction in funding costs. For example, a 31bp cut to the lending rate would boost the 2012 EPS of the IPPs by 7%. The property sector should benefit not only from the reduction in funding costs for developers but also from a boost to property demand due to the reduction in benchmark rates for mortgage loans.

Looking forward, we expect the PBOC to cut the RRR 2-3 more times in the remainder of this year, and the government to give a bit more aggressive window guidance for banks to lend to medium- and long-term projects. We expect total new lending to reach around RMB8.2tn this year, vs. our previous projection of RMB8tn. Spending part of the fiscal reserve fund is also an option to strengthen fiscal stimulus without changing the official (approved) fiscal deficit number. We are not sure whether another rate cut is warranted at this moment. We maintain our GDP forecast that yoy growth will recover to 7.9% in Q3 and 8.2% in Q4, up from 7.5% in Q2.

• [Editor:editor]