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One of the major challenges facing the global aluminum industry has been the rise in Chinese aluminum exports. China’s aluminum exports rose by 10% YoY (year-over-year) in 2015. In November, there were reports that China (FXI) was planning to curtail some of its aluminum capacity. According to a Bloomberg report (citing the Sino-Russian protocol on energy cooperation that was signed on November 16), China would bring “aluminum output into line with demand.” According to Bloomberg, quoting RUSAL’s Deputy CEO Oleg Mukhamedshin, this is “mega news for the industry.”

In January, China exported 380,000 metric tons of aluminum—a year-over-year decline of more than 12%. The fall in Chinese aluminum exports is positive news for the global aluminum industry, but China might need to cut down its aluminum exports further to restore the balance in global markets.

Why have China’s exports fallen?

One of the major reasons behind the fall in China’s aluminum exports has been lower aluminum prices. According to reports, several Chinese aluminum smelters are losing money at current prices. Several aluminum producers including Alcoa (AA) and Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) have also said on previous occasions that Chinese smelters are losing money under the current pricing environment. During its 4Q15 earnings conference call, Alcoa said that 75% of China’s aluminum refining and 70% of its aluminum-smelting capacity are cash negative, based on current metal prices.

It will be crucial for aluminum company investors to follow the monthly trend in Chinese aluminum exports over the next few months. Chinese aluminum production will be a key driver of global aluminum market balance in 2016.

Investors looking at diversifying the risk of investing in a single security can also consider ETF’s for their investment portfolios. The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) is an alternate way to play the materials space. Together, Alcoa and Ball Corporation (BLL) form ~4.3% of XLB’s portfolio.

• [Editor:tianyawei]