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[Ferro-alloys.com]After the 5th Mn Cr Ni & Ore Industry International Conference, Analyst Li Qiang pointed out that ferroalloy industry had entered the new normal pattern. After ups and downs, Mn alloy industry started the new normal progress this autumn and it was impossible for market price to rise sharply.

1. Macro Economy is in New Normal

‘New normal’ is used to describe the slow and painful recovery progress after the economic crisis and it means new regulation, new market and new growth.

China's economy has transferred from high growth stage to medium growth stage and President Xi Jinping pointed out we must adapt to the new normal.

After a great development era of heavy chemical industry, capacity utilization of 21 major industries of the major 39 in China decreased below 75%.In 2013, capacity utilization of ferroalloy industry was less than 70% and 50% of the enterprises were in loss.

When GDP growth falls to around 7.5%, it’s quite practical to take the measures of microstimulation and directional adjustment. Construction cycle of high-speed rail and the subway is quite long and there would be no immediate effect on steel consumption. Relaxed mortgage policy could not fundamentally reverse downward trend of real estate industry.

2. Iron & Steel Industry is in New Normal

In 2013, China's crude steel output hit a new record of 779 million mt, accounting for 48.48% of the world's 1.607 billion mt. In the first half of 2014, China produced 692.9 million mt of crude steel, up 4.5% year-on-year. It’s clear that China's crude steel production has entered a period of slow growth or even stagnation

Meanwhile, scrap steel output increased continuously. In 2013, scrap steel output reached 160 million mt in China.

Iron ore price dropped from USD 200/mt to USD 80/mt and it would continue to dip downward.

3. Supply-demand imbalance in Mn alloy market

Because of the tariff barrier, there was little export or import of Mn alloy in China. It’s estimated that annual output of Mn alloy stays around 10-11 million mt.

In 2011, power shortage in the South reduced local SiMn output sharply and Northern manufacturers rose rapidly with more abundant and cheaper electricity.

More advanced and larger smelting furnaces were put into production in the North and lowered market price. Some northern manufacturers start to sell to the South.

4. Mn ore price is in New Normal

According to public statistics, global Mn ore exploitation quantity will increase by 20% in 2014 and competitiveness of domestic Mn ore will decline further. From 2013 to 2014, South African Mn ore supply increased by 30% but the price decreased by 27%.

5. Financial strain is in New Normal

The new Administration tries to transfer mode and adjust structure. It strives to release reform dividend and reduce money flowing.

Many mills default payment and ferroalloy enterprises are faced with serious fund problems. Industry integrity drops by large.

Ferroalloy industry is considered as a high energy consumption and high pollution industry, so it’s quite difficult to get loan from banks. As market price drops and many manufacturers are in loss, social financing will be more difficult. Most Mn alloy enterprises will be faced with serious fund problem and only a few good companies could get opportunities.

6. More fierce competition is in New Normal

After the Four Trillion Yuan Plan, SiMn demand decreased and market price dropped .Cut-throat competition brought out technology upgrading and management innovation.

Mn alloy enterprises should stop dreaming about export tariff cancellation and face the fact that market price will continue to drop. Market competition will be more fierce and there will be no chance for speculative participants.

7. Market price is in New Normal

The upcoming Beijing APEC Summit might affect SiMn consumption around Beijing for a short period. But in general, market competition will be more fierce and SiMn price might decline further.

8. Persistence is in New Normal

Persistence in the industry could create innovation. The secret of survival and development is just consistent persistence.

• [Editor:Mike.zhang]