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Tungsten demand is waning, says Roskill, whose most recent tungsten market outlook foresees demand slowing to 2.6 percent per year until 2018 as one of its most well known applications- filaments in lightbulbs – shows signs of decline. However, despite the lackluster overall outlook from the analyst firm, it seems that the alloys and hardmetals facets of tungsten demand are slated to do well.

With a vested interest in cost savings, both in residential and commercial applications, tungsten demand stemming from the lighting application industry is slated to drop by about 5 percent per year over the next four years. In 2013, tungsten demand from lighting applications accounted for about 12 percent of total demand in 2013. Roskill‘s report does however note that newer lighting technologies do still require greater volumes of refractory tungsten alloys in their manufacture, bolstering the demand in the alloy sector.

Despite the lagging demand in lighting applications, Roskill does see some growth coming from the automotive sector, particularly in North America, China and Europe. Demand for cemented carbide products is expected to increase by 3.6 percent per year into 2018m as well as increasing its overall marketshare of tungsten demand. Furthermore, Asian demand primarily from China, is expected to increase to 52 percent by 2018 from the 48 percent from 2013. Roskill’s expectation is that China’s demand for tungsten will outpace European and North American tungsten growth.

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On the back of demand ebbing and flowing, tungsten prices are also expected to see a downward slide in the coming years.

“After peaking in 2011 and spiking again in 2013, tungsten prices are forecast to fall throughout 2014 and early 2015. Improving availability of raw materials from new mine projects is increasing oversupply pressure in the market.” Roskill said.

Despite demand slipping on some fronts, it is increasing on others and lower prices will most likely have an impact on developing assets which will inevitably aid in balancing out the market as availability of supply will become a concern.

To that, Roskill adds that the “focus may shift to the cost position and viability of specific mining operations, including China where lower costs have previously insulated suppliers from lower prices.” The firm also adds that non-Chinese tungsten supply is going to become more significant as projects line up to come online by 2018.

• [Editor:Mango]